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Identifying the residential location of rapists
1Centre for Investigative Psychology, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom.
Journal - Forensic Science Society
|July 1, 1994
Summary
Criminal investigators can predict serial rapist behavior using a refined marauder model. This model, combining spatial offense patterns with offender background, significantly reduces the predicted area for locating offenders.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Geographic Profiling
- Behavioral Analysis
Background:
- Examined spatial offense behavior of 45 British serial rapists.
- Investigated two hypotheses: commuting to an area versus marauding from a fixed location.
Purpose of the Study:
- To generate a predictive model for criminal investigators.
- To refine predictions of offender travel distance and residential zones.
Main Methods:
- Applied the marauder hypothesis to offender spatial behavior.
- Integrated offender background facets to refine the marauder model.
- Developed a small-scale expert system combining predictive models.
Main Results:
- 39 out of 45 offenders fit the marauder hypothesis.
- The initial marauder model predicted an average area of 180 square miles.
- The refined model reduced the predicted residential zone to an average of just over 10 square miles.
- The combined expert system achieved 82% accuracy in predicting the correct area.
Conclusions:
- The refined marauder model significantly improves the accuracy of predicting serial rapist activity zones.
- The developed expert system offers a valuable tool for criminal investigations.
- Further development of the expert system is recommended for enhanced predictive capabilities.