Predictive performance of the Bayesian analysis: effects of blood sampling time, population parameters, and...

The present paper reports theoretical equations for the predictive performance of the Bayesian forecasting method. The precision of parameter estimates and predicted concentrations for an individual was described by general equations with the aid of a variance-covariance matrix of parameter estimates that involved the Bayes theorem. The equations were applied to assess the predictive performance of the one-point Bayesian method in association with blood sampling time, the population parameters, and the pharmacostatistical model. The simulation study showed that the prediction error in parameter estimates essentially depended upon the sampling time but the magnitude of dependency was affected by the size of inter- and intraindividual variances. With a smaller value of interindividual variance, the dependency on sampling time was less apparent. Effects of sampling time were further examined using clinical data obtained from 20 patients taking theophylline, and the results were in good agreement with the theoretical consideration. The present general equations are useful to investigate the sampling strategy as well as structural and variance modeling on the predictive performance of the Bayesian method.