[Predictive factors of falls among urban community-dwelling elderly]

One hundred and three ambulatory and healthy elderly (age; 73.8 +/- 7.3 years) took part in a one year prospective study of falling. All the subjects underwent a baseline examination consisting of an interview, physical and mental examination, laboratory tests and identification of all drugs being taken. Additionally, spontaneous postural sway while standing still was measured using a computerized posturography system. Thereafter, we carried out bimonthly check-ups to obtain information about falls. During the study period, the subjects sustained 54 falls and 14 subjects fell twice or more. Multiple logistic regression analysis of selected medical and demographic variables indicated that the most influential variables regarding those who fell twice or more were a history of falling, not living alone and poor tandem gait. Although a history of falling contributed to the value of spontaneous sway while standing still, the value did not attain a statistical significance for predicting falling.