Factors influencing survival after AIDS: report from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS)

The objective of this study was to determine if clinical signs, symptoms, laboratory variables, and use of therapeutic or prophylactic agents have prognostic associations with survival after diagnosis of clinical AIDS. A total of 2,168 homosexual men, seropositive for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) participated in a longitudinal cohort study of the greater metropolitan areas of Baltimore, Maryland, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.--the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS). Variables within 6 months prior to AIDS diagnosis included age, CD4+ lymphocyte counts, hemoglobin, and self-reported thrush, fever, anti-retroviral therapy (ART) beginning prior to AIDS onset, and ART beginning after AIDS (as a time-dependent covariate) were analyzed as mutually exclusive categories, as was prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). Univariate and multivariate survival models of time from AIDS to death were fit. In univariate analysis, younger age, higher counts of CD4+ lymphocytes, hemoglobin, and absence of thrush or fever prior to AIDS onset were associated with longer survival after AIDS. Those who began ART within 3 months after AIDS onset had longer median survival (1.75 years), from 3 months after AIDS, when compared with those who began ART prior to AIDS (1.18 years). This comparison is not influenced by the bias that those who survive longer have a greater likelihood to subsequently receive ART. Prophylaxis for PCP beginning after AIDS onset was also associated with longer post-AIDS survival when compared with beginning prophylaxis prior to AIDS or never using prophylaxis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)