Coronary artery bypass grafting: the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database experience

The need for accurate risk assessment has become an indispensable element in the practice of cardiac surgery. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database allows subscribing institutions to perform sophisticated patient risk assessment using traditional statistical tools and a newly developed risk model of operative mortality. The database experience with isolated coronary artery bypass grafting has been studied most closely at this point and serves as the basis for this report. The approach to operative risk assessment is presented along with an analysis of important risk factors in the practice of coronary artery surgery from 1980 through 1990. The database contains records of 80,881 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting in numerous institutions from 1980 through 1990. These records were used to conduct a detailed analysis of risk factors associated with coronary operations in this time interval and to present statistical methods used to formulate a risk equation that allows one to predict the probability of operative death. In the course of this decade, there were clearly defined trends showing a statistically significant increase in adverse patient risk factors. The risk model has proven to be a reliable tool for predicting the probability of operative death in an individual patient and may be valuable in both patient counseling and medical decision making. Large multi-institutional databases of this type are key ingredients of modern operative risk assessment. A database containing a broad national experience of this type can represent an aggregate experience that may well approximate a universally accepted standard of care.