National Council Licensure Examination success: accurate prediction of student performance on the post-1988 examination

This study was designed to identify variables that might be used as predictors for success on the post-1988 National Council Licensure Examination (NCLEX) and to identify those students at risk of failing the examination. The convenience sample consisted of 257 graduates of a baccalaureate nursing program from 1988 to 1990. The investigators examined 15 variables to determine their predictive value for NCLEX success. Grades in the first senior level nursing course and graduation grade point index were the two best predictors. Results of the discriminant analyses identified seven significant predictor variables leading to successful classification of 86 per cent of students at the end of the junior year, 88 per cent during the senior year, and 91 per cent by the time of graduation. Findings from this study indicate that reasonably accurate predictive data on individual student performance is available by the end of the junior year, allowing faculty to begin interventions for at-risk students. The greater precision of prediction during the senior year and at graduation provides direction for later remediation to increase the probability of passing the NCLEX.