The probability of passing at resits in the Part I Fellowship examination

The study aimed to determine the relationship of a candidate's attempt number and proximity of the aggregate score to the pass mark, individually and in combination, to the probability of passing at the next attempt at the Part I FRACS examination. The results of 36 examinations, in which 3513 candidates sat 5891 tests, were analysed. While 40.5% of all candidates who sat these examinations passed, the first attempt pass rate was 44%. Overall about one-third of the candidates who had sat the examination previously passed at the next attempt, the probability of passing remained fairly constant up to the fourth attempt and fell thereafter. As expected, the further the candidate's aggregate score was below the pass mark, the lower the probability of passing at the next attempt. Considering both attempt number and proximity to the pass mark, probability of passing decreased with successive attempts except for very weak candidates. The results indicate that, while the imposition of an upper limit on the number of resits at the examination is not justified, candidates who fall significantly below the pass mark should be advised against resitting for a reasonable period, and those who repeatedly do so should be advised against resitting for a reasonable period, and those who repeatedly do so should another career. It is suggested that feedback to the candidates about the probability of passing at the next attempt be based on the results obtained in this study.