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The stable equivalent population, age composition, and Fisher's reproductive value function

T J Espenshade, G Campbell

    Demography
    |February 1, 1977
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study analyzes human population dynamics. The stable equivalent population difference predicts future growth from age structure, and reproductive value can peak early with negative population growth.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Dynamics
    • Mathematical Biology

    Background:

    • Understanding population dynamics is crucial for policy and resource management.
    • The stable equivalent population and reproductive value are key demographic concepts.
    • Previous analyses have not fully explored the implications of negative population growth rates.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To further analyze the stable equivalent population in human populations.
    • To investigate Fisher's reproductive value function and its maxima.
    • To determine the conditions under which reproductive value exhibits a global maximum.

    Main Methods:

    • Calculating the arithmetic difference between stable equivalent and actual population sizes.
    • Analyzing Fisher's reproductive value function across various intrinsic growth rates.

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilizing recent demographic data for U.S. females.

    • Main Results:

    • The difference between stable equivalent and actual population size reflects the prospective contribution of age composition to population growth.
    • Fisher's reproductive value function can have a global maximum in the first 1-2 years of life when the intrinsic growth rate is negative.
    • This finding contrasts with previous specific examples.

    Conclusions:

    • Age composition significantly influences prospective population growth.
    • Negative population growth rates can lead to unique patterns in reproductive value, with early-life maxima.
    • The study provides new insights into human population dynamics and reproductive strategies.