[The value of cytological studies in nodular goiter: results in 495 patients]

The accuracy of clinical diagnosis and fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) was evaluated in a total of 495 patients of whom 183 were operated upon within 6 months after FNAB and 312 were not. Operated patients were divided into three subgroups with high, moderate or low suspicion of malignant neoplasms on clinical grounds. Histological examination revealed an overall malignant neoplasm rate of 23%. The rate, i.e. the positive predictive value, was 74% for the subgroup with high clinical suspicion, vs 14% and 10% respectively for the subgroups with moderate and low clinical suspicion. The sensitivity of a high clinical suspicion was 60% and the specificity 93%. The overall sensitivity of FNAB was 93% in the operated group and probably not less than 87% in all patients studied; specificity was 71% and 84% respectively for these groups. The overall positive predictive value of a positive cytology result (malignant or uncertain) was 48%. In the subgroups with moderate or low clinical suspicion which are more representative of a non-university setting, the average predictive value was 27%. In our opinion all patients in the group with high clinical suspicion need surgical treatment, regardless of the FNAB result; those with lower degrees of clinical suspicion and malignant or uncertain FNAB result should also undergo diagnostic surgical exploration.