The Goldilocks dilemma in survey design and its solution

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Survey Methodology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Designing surveys with followups to detect event occurrences presents a timing dilemma.
• Followup intervals that are too short risk observing few events, while intervals too long risk observing nearly all events, both being uninformative.
• This challenge is amplified in multiwave studies with multiple followups.

Purpose of the Study:

• To address the 'Goldilocks dilemma' in survey design concerning optimal followup intervals.
• To introduce a technique for guiding the spacing of followup waves in multiwave studies.
• To prevent inefficiencies in study design related to event detection.

Main Methods:

• Development of a novel technique for determining optimal followup wave spacing.
• Application of the technique to data from the Massachusetts Health Care Panel Study (MHCPS).
• Demonstration using data on functional dependence in the elderly.

Main Results:

• The described technique provides guidance for spacing followup waves in multiwave studies.
• This method helps mitigate the risk of uninformative data due to suboptimal timing.
• The Massachusetts Health Care Panel Study data serves as a practical example for the technique's application.

Conclusions:

• The proposed technique offers a partial solution to the challenge of timing followups in event-detection surveys.
• Optimizing followup intervals is crucial for efficient study design and reliable data collection.
• This approach is particularly relevant for longitudinal studies investigating the onset of events in specific populations, such as the elderly.