The incidence of child sexual abuse in Northern Ireland

This is part of a major epidemiological survey of the reported incidence (new cases) of child sexual abuse in Northern Ireland. Based on multi-source methodology, the study used computer-based record linkage techniques to find the number of incident cases occurring in the Province in 1987. Reporters involved with the incident cases were interviewed by OEV who recorded details of the child, the abuse, and the abuser using a specially designed questionnaire. Age-sex specific incidence rates adjusted for potential misclassification were computed and allowance made for under-ascertainment. Overall, 408 Established cases were reported during 1987. The corresponding incidence rate for Northern Ireland was 0.9 cases per 1000 children. When Suspected and Alleged cases were compared with Established cases, a further 119 cases were allocated by discriminant function analysis to the Established group, and the rate rose to 1.16 per thousand. Selected reporters were interviewed about ascertainment which was estimated to lie between 62% and 74%. If the lowest level of ascertainment applied the corresponding incidence rate for Northern Ireland would increase to 1.87. These figures are higher than those currently reported elsewhere in the UK, but methodological differences in study design hamper interregional comparisons. A number of relevant methodological problems are discussed.