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Matching physician supply and requirements: testing policy recommendations
R M Politzer1, S R Gamliel, J M Cultice
1Workforce Analysis and Research Branch, Office of Research and Planning, Health Resources and Services Administration, Rockville, MD 20857, USA.
Summary
Managed care growth necessitates physician workforce changes. Increasing generalist physicians and reducing residents can balance specialist supply and meet future healthcare needs.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare policy
- Physician workforce analysis
- Medical education reform
Background:
- The expansion of managed care is reshaping healthcare delivery.
- This shift demands significant adjustments in physician numbers and specialties.
- Current physician production models do not align with projected future needs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of managed care on physician supply and demand.
- To identify optimal strategies for aligning physician distribution with healthcare requirements.
- To address the projected oversupply of specialists and potential undersupply of generalists.
Main Methods:
- Modeling physician supply and demand under various policy scenarios.
- Evaluating the effects of altering residency slots and generalist training.
- Projecting future physician distribution based on current trends and proposed interventions.
Main Results:
- Future physician supply is misaligned with anticipated healthcare demands.
- An oversupply of specialists is a more significant issue than generalist adequacy.
- Neither reducing residency intake nor solely increasing generalist output resolves the imbalance.
Conclusions:
- A combined strategy is needed to optimize physician workforce distribution.
- Increasing generalist production to 50% and reducing first-year residents is proposed.
- This approach aims to minimize specialist surplus while ensuring adequate generalist supply.