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Quantifying water pathogen risk in an epidemiological framework
J N Eisenberg1, E Y Seto, A W Olivieri
1School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720, USA.
Summary
This study introduces a new quantitative method for microbial risk assessment, moving from individual point estimates to population distributional estimates. The approach uses Monte Carlo simulations to better understand disease outbreak risks and uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Environmental microbiology
- Quantitative risk assessment
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Traditional microbial risk assessment relies on point estimates for individual infection probability.
- Existing methods often overlook uncertainty and variability in risk characterization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a quantitative approach for microbial risk assessment using distributional estimates for populations.
- To identify key parameters influencing uncertainty in disease risk prediction.
Main Methods:
- Developed a dynamic epidemiological model tracking susceptible, infected, diseased, and immune individuals, alongside pathogen density.
- Employed a simulation methodology with probability distributions for parameters and Monte Carlo simulations.
- Applied a binary classification to assess simulation outputs.
Main Results:
- Pathogen shedding by infected swimmers was the primary source of uncertainty in giardiasis risk assessment.
- Parameter importance varied with the range of the shedding parameter; treatment efficiency and human exposure became critical under specific constraints.
- Identified conditions conducive to outbreaks versus non-outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- The developed Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a robust framework for population-based microbial risk assessment.
- This approach effectively identifies key uncertainty drivers and conditions influencing disease outbreak likelihood.
- Understanding parameter uncertainty is crucial for accurate risk prediction and management in recreational water settings.