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[The mathematical modelling of the possible morbidity from epidemic louse-borne typhus under current conditions]
E P Lukin1, V V Mikhaĭlov, V L Oleĭchik
1Virological Center of the Research Institute of Microbiology, Sergiev Posad, Moscow Region, Russia.
Zhurnal Mikrobiologii, Epidemiologii I Immunobiologii
|January 1, 1996
Abstract:
On the basis of their earlier formula for modeling the possible development of the epidemic process of louse-borne exanthematous typhus the authors have calculated the probability of the development of such process for high indices (10 -- 12 % of convalescents with louse contamination rate among them reaching 20 -- 40 %) characterizing this process. The number of sources of this infection (primary patients), as well as the rate of increase and scale of louse contamination of the population, are of prime importance for the prognostication of the development of the epidemic.