Towards a model for hospital case-load decision support

This paper presents an operational model of patient flow through a hospital. The operations involved in the patient flow are explained and the development and use of the model are discussed. The model uses the data derived from the NHS minimum contract data set which is collected by all hospitals, and this results in the model being generalizable to any hospital. Typically the model can be used to determine the appropriate bed numbers for a given arrival pattern, or the effects of particular management strategies or changes in patient care patterns on the hospital. The model is implemented on a PC running the Microsoft Windows operating environment, and solved used a simulation approach.