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Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability

Griffies1, Bryan

  • 1S. M. Griffies, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Route 1, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA. E-mail: smg@gfdl.gov K. Bryan, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08544-0710, USA. E-mail: kbryan@splash. princeton.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 10, 1997
PubMed
Summary

Climate predictability extends beyond a few weeks, particularly in the North Atlantic. A global ocean-atmosphere model suggests decadal-scale climate prediction is possible, linked to sea surface temperature patterns.

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Experimental Charge Densities of Semiconducting Cage Structures Containing Alkaline Earth Guest Atoms Work at the X10c beamline at NSLS was supported by the Division of Materials Sciences of the US Department of Energy (DE-AC02-98CH10886). B.B.I. and A.E.C.P. gratefully acknowledge support from the Danish and Swedish Research Councils (SNF, TFR, STINT). This work was partially supported by the Office of Naval Research (G.D.S., J.D.B., S.L., A.E.C.P.), and it made use of MRL Central Facilities supported by the National Science Foundation under Award No. DMR96-32716. Dr. R. L. Paul of NIST is thanked for the Cold Neutron Prompt Gamma Ray Activation Analysis.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Oceanography
  • Atmospheric science

Background:

  • Weather forecasts are limited to a few weeks due to atmospheric unpredictability.
  • Ocean-atmosphere coupling enables longer-term climate variability prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate decadal-scale climate predictability in the North Atlantic.
  • To assess the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in climate prediction.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model.
  • Analyzed multidecadal sea surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic.

Main Results:

  • Identified potential decadal or longer climate predictability in the North Atlantic.

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  • Linked North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns to climate variations over Eurasia.

    • Conclusions:

    • Decadal climate prediction in the North Atlantic is feasible.
    • An effective Atlantic Ocean monitoring system is crucial for accurate climate predictions.