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[The population of Catalonia, 1991-2015. A proposal of denominators]
A Mompart Penina1, G Pérez Albarracin, X Castellà Griset
1Departament de Sanitat i Seguretat Social, Generalitat de Catalunya.
Objectives:
The purpose of population projection is to have available data in the absence of it and to forecast characteristics and structure of the population. The objective is to obtain the population of Catalonia by age and sex from 1991 to 2015.
Methods:
The components method was used to obtain the population projection with an unique demographic scenario characterized by a low Catalonian population aging. The demographic hypotheses assume a stability in the mortality, a moderate increase in the fertility with a delay in the schedule and a slight net migration.
Results:
In 2015 the projected population under the combination of hypotheses would be decreased in 13.37% for ages less than 15, in 2.27% for ages 15 through 64 and for people over 65 it would increase in 39.29%. The major impact of aging would be observed in female with an increasing in the average of age from 39.29 in 1991 to 44.14 in 2015. The projected population would be 933,540 for the youngest group, 4,004,226 for the adult group and 1,112,732 for the aged group.
Conclusions:
These results show a progressive aging of the Catalonian population due to a reduction of the youngest and an increasing of the oldest age groups.