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Projecting future drug expenditures--1997
1Department of Pharmacy, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
Summary
Projecting 1997 drug expenditures requires analyzing producer price index data, industry analyst forecasts, and group purchasing organizations (GPOs) predictions. Pharmacy budgets must also consider pharmacoeconomics and evolving healthcare landscapes.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Pharmaceutical Policy
Background:
- Forecasting drug expenditures and pharmacy budgets for 1997 involves multiple data sources.
- Recent price trends and industry projections are crucial for accurate financial planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To discuss methods for projecting 1997 drug expenditures and preparing pharmacy budgets.
- To analyze various data sources and factors influencing drug costs.
Main Methods:
- Utilized producer price index (PPI) data for drugs and pharmaceuticals.
- Incorporated data from independent sources, drug industry analysts, group purchasing organizations (GPOs), and health maintenance organizations (HMOs).
- Considered pharmacoeconomics and legal developments impacting drug pricing.
Main Results:
- Producer Price Index showed a 2.2% increase for drugs (3.4% for prescriptions) from Jan-May 1996.
- Medi-Span reported a 1.2% average drug price increase in H1 1996; IMS America data showed 1.8% increase between Q2 1995-1996.
- Analysts projected 2.5-5.0% price increases; GPOs predicted 2.2% (contracted) and 4.3% (non-contracted) increases.
- HMOs projected a 4.5% increase in pharmacy expenditures per member for 1997.
Conclusions:
- Pharmacoeconomic analysis requires careful application when projecting drug costs.
- Pharmacy budgets must integrate drug expenditures with institutional objectives, considering factors like capitation, competition, and service relocation.
- Legal actions may influence future price increases, necessitating adaptation to the changing healthcare landscape.
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