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Related Experiment Videos

Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory

Y Rottenstreich1, A Tversky

  • 1Department of Psychology, Stanford University, California, USA. yuval@hss.caltech.edu

Psychological Review
|April 1, 1997
PubMed
Summary
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Support theory explains probability judgments using evidence strength. This study extends the theory to show that explicit disjunctions often result in lower probability judgments than the sum of their parts, a phenomenon termed explicit subadditivity.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Support theory models probability judgment based on the strength of evidence favoring a focal hypothesis over an alternative.
  • It posits that unpacking an event's description into components increases its judged probability (implicit subadditivity).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend support theory by introducing and demonstrating explicit subadditivity in probability judgments.
  • To investigate the psychological mechanisms underlying both implicit and explicit subadditivity.

Main Methods:

  • Experimental studies involving probability and frequency judgments.
  • Analysis of judgments related to explicit disjunctions and their components.

Main Results:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Demonstration of both implicit subadditivity (probability increases with unpacking) and explicit subadditivity (probability of disjunction is less than sum of component probabilities).
  • Implicit subadditivity is linked to enhanced availability of information.
  • Explicit subadditivity is attributed to repacking and anchoring effects.

Conclusions:

  • The findings extend support theory by incorporating explicit subadditivity, providing a more comprehensive model of probability judgment.
  • Availability, repacking, and anchoring are key cognitive mechanisms influencing how people evaluate probabilities of complex events.