Predictors of the early development of advanced metachronous colon adenomas

In order to reduce the number of colonoscopies performed for the surveillance of patients after polypectomy, suitable predictors of adenomas recurrence are needed. The aim of this study was to find predictors of the early development of metachronous adenomas and specifically of advanced ones.

Forty-four patients underwent total colonoscopy 24-26 months after initial endoscopic polypectomy. All polyps were endoscopically removed and an adenoma was considered as advanced if the diameter was > 1 cm and/or villous component and/or severe dysplasia were present.

Metachronous adenomas were detected in 16 (36.4% patients. Five (11.4%) of them had advanced metachronous adenomas. Early recurrence of adenomas was significantly correlated with the total number of indices adenomas (p = 0.027). On the contrary, the presence of metachronous adenomas was not related to any of the patients' characteristics nor to the site and the histology of the indices adenomas. The development of advanced metachronous adenomas during the same period was significantly correlated with patients' age, as it was observed only in patients aged > or = 60 years (5/21 or 23.8%) and in none of the patients aged < 60 years (Odds ratio: 15.7, p = 0.02). Logistic regression analysis revealed that patient's age was the only significant predictor of the early development of advanced metachronous adenomas (beta = 0.40, p = 0.02) and that the number of the indices adenomas was the only significant predictor for the recurrence of all adenomas (beta = 1.59, p = 0.02).

1. Only patients aged > or = 60 years seem to develop advanced metachronous adenomas two years after polypectomy and 2. The likelihood for developing metachronous adenomas during the same period is related to the number of indices adenomas.