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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive rate. Tuberculosis as an example
1Epidemiology Program School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
American Journal of Epidemiology
|June 15, 1997
Summary
Tuberculosis epidemics were severe historically, with the basic reproductive rate (R0) analysis revealing key transmission factors. This method helps understand TB
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- The basic reproductive rate (R0) quantifies epidemic severity.
- Understanding historical tuberculosis (TB) transmission is crucial for public health.
- TB has evolved over centuries, necessitating analysis of its early epidemic potential.
Purpose of the Study:
- To perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive rate (R0) for tuberculosis (TB).
- To assess the relative contribution of different TB transmission components to historical R0.
- To identify key parameters influencing R0 magnitude and TB epidemic potential.
Main Methods:
- Replicated Latin hypercube sampling was employed for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.
- The R0 was decomposed into three components: fast, slow, and relapse TB.
- Sensitivity analysis identified influential input parameters affecting R0 estimates.
Main Results:
- Historical TB epidemics were estimated to be fairly severe based on R0.
- The R0 associated with slow disease progression (R0(slow)) was the largest contributor to overall R0.
- Five of nine input parameters significantly influenced R0 magnitude due to estimation uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative understanding of historical TB transmission dynamics.
- The methodology can be applied to estimate epidemic outbreak probability for various infectious diseases.
- This approach aids in understanding the historical epidemiology of TB and informing future disease control strategies.