[Length of survival of elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease]

We examined survival in 53 patients over 60 years old who had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and whose FEV1 was less than 60% of the forced vital capacity and was less than 60% of the predicted value. They comprised 34 men and 19 women. The mean age was 75.2 years. The %FEV1 was 39.0% and the body mass index was 19.0. Neither age %FEV1, nor body mass index differed significantly between men and women. However, the number of cigarettes smoked per day, the number of years of cigarette smoking, and the Brinkman index were higher in men than in women. The Brinkman index was 1255.0 in men and 617.8 in women (p = 0.0001). For the group as a whole, the 5-year survival rate was 65% and the 10-year survival rate was 35%. The survival rate of men did not differ from that of women. Survival and %FEV1 did not differ between men and women, despite the significant difference in Brinkman index, which suggests that women were more susceptible to the effects of cigarette smoking than men. Age, one tenth of %FEV1, and body mass index less than 19 were found to be independent predictors of mortality (proportional hazards analysis, p = 0.044, 0.019, and 0.024, respectively). The 5-year survival rate were as follows: 85% in patients less than 75 years of age, 50% in patients more than 75 years of age, 25% in patients with a %EFV1 less than 30%, 80% in patients with a %FEV1 of 30% to 49%, 62% in patients with a %FEV1 of 50% to 60%, 50% in patients with a body mass index of less than 19, and 83% in patients with a body mass index of more than 19.