The future of pharmacoeconomics: a commentary

In a recent issue of Clinical Therapeutics, Dr. Michael F. Drummond argued that the future of pharmacoeconomics "lies in developing both trial-based and modeling studies, and in meeting the needs of decision makers". The purpose of this commentary is to present an alternative scenario. The future of pharmacoeconomics lies in meeting the needs of decision makers; if these needs are to be met, the modeling of new drug impacts becomes the principal task of the pharmacoeconomist. Clinical trials, while important in meeting the safety and efficacy requirements of regulatory bodies such as the US Food and Drug Administration, are, by their very nature, only an input to the modeling of the impact of new therapies on the costs and outcomes of treating patients within health care systems. While this may be seen-particularly from a clinical paradigm-to be an heretical view, it is the one that I believe will prevail if pharmacoeconomics is to survive as a viable and meaningful discipline.