Uncertainty and information flows in humanitarian agencies

Humanitarian agencies struggle with high uncertainty. The focus here is on uncertainty that grows out of the internal complexity of the agencies themselves, rather than simply emanating from their war-ridden environments. This is illustrated with a study of uncertainty management and information processing in two UN agencies working for the victims of the conflict in southern Sudan. Data from 1995 relief distributions are used to simulate aspects of uncertainty; paradoxically, uncertainty increased with growing success of the relief operation. The findings is in tune with observations from the same region that Jok (1996) reported in this journal. While uncertainty may remain difficult to reduce, co-operation among agencies and public confidence in their work provide functional equivalents for certainty.