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Drug Repurposing Hypothesis Generation Using the "RE:fine Drugs" System
Published on: December 11, 2016
Projecting future drug expenditures--1998
1Department of Pharmacy, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
Summary
Projected drug cost increases for 1998 are lower than previous years. However, evolving healthcare dynamics, including mergers and generic competition, complicate accurate drug expenditure forecasting.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Pharmaceutical Policy
- Drug Pricing Analysis
Background:
- Recent data show modest increases in drug prices during 1997, with variations across different data sources.
- Pharmaceutical industry trends include mergers, acquisitions, and an anticipated rise in new drug introductions due to patent expirations and generic competition.
Purpose of the Study:
- To discuss drug cost projections for 1998.
- To identify factors influencing drug costs and explore tools for expenditure forecasting.
- To analyze the impact of market dynamics on future drug pricing.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of producer price index, Medi-Span, First Data-Bank, and IMS America data for drug price changes.
- Review of projections from drug industry analysts and group purchasing organizations.
- Consideration of healthcare environment changes, including mergers and generic drug impact.
Main Results:
- Drug price increases in 1997 ranged from 1.02% to 2.7% across various indices.
- Projections for the next 12 months indicate overall price increases of 2-4%, with significant differences for contracted (0.56%) versus non-contracted (3.6%) drugs.
- Anticipated smaller increases in drug costs for 1998 and beyond, but forecasting complexity is high.
Conclusions:
- Despite projected lower drug cost increases, the dynamic healthcare landscape necessitates enhanced knowledge for accurate future expenditure forecasting.
- Mergers, generic competition, and evolving distribution channels present challenges to predictable drug pricing.
- The increasing number of new drugs entering the market will influence future drug expenditure patterns.
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