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Projecting future drug expenditures--1998

B Mehl1, J P Santell

  • 1Department of Pharmacy, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.

American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy : AJHP : Official Journal of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists
|February 18, 1998
PubMed
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Projected drug cost increases for 1998 are lower than previous years. However, evolving healthcare dynamics, including mergers and generic competition, complicate accurate drug expenditure forecasting.

Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Pharmaceutical Policy
  • Drug Pricing Analysis

Background:

  • Recent data show modest increases in drug prices during 1997, with variations across different data sources.
  • Pharmaceutical industry trends include mergers, acquisitions, and an anticipated rise in new drug introductions due to patent expirations and generic competition.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To discuss drug cost projections for 1998.
  • To identify factors influencing drug costs and explore tools for expenditure forecasting.
  • To analyze the impact of market dynamics on future drug pricing.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of producer price index, Medi-Span, First Data-Bank, and IMS America data for drug price changes.
  • Review of projections from drug industry analysts and group purchasing organizations.

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  • Consideration of healthcare environment changes, including mergers and generic drug impact.

    • Main Results:

    • Drug price increases in 1997 ranged from 1.02% to 2.7% across various indices.
    • Projections for the next 12 months indicate overall price increases of 2-4%, with significant differences for contracted (0.56%) versus non-contracted (3.6%) drugs.
    • Anticipated smaller increases in drug costs for 1998 and beyond, but forecasting complexity is high.

    Conclusions:

    • Despite projected lower drug cost increases, the dynamic healthcare landscape necessitates enhanced knowledge for accurate future expenditure forecasting.
    • Mergers, generic competition, and evolving distribution channels present challenges to predictable drug pricing.
    • The increasing number of new drugs entering the market will influence future drug expenditure patterns.