Expectancy theory prediction of the preference to remain employed or to retire

Vroom's (1964) expectancy theory model was used to predict older workers' choices between continued employment or immediate retirement. It was hypothesized that a person's preference for one of the two alternatives would be a function of the differences between the instrumentality of employment and the instrumentality of retirement for the attainment of outcomes, multiplied by the valence of each outcome, summed over outcomes. To test this, 290 Israeli male workers, aged 57 to 64, were interviewed. Measures included: preference for employment or retirement; valences of 35 outcomes; perceived instrumentalities of employment and retirement. The results supported the hypothesis (R = .40; p less than .01). It is suggested that further research along these lines could equip organizations with a tool for assisting older employees in the transition to retirement or for encouraging those who are still capable of making a significant contribution to remain employed.