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Compensating changes in fertility and mortality

T J Espenshade, C Y Chan

    Demography
    |August 1, 1976
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    This study introduces a method to analyze compensating changes in fertility and mortality that do not alter population growth rates, using Leslie matrix analysis and a root-squaring technique.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Dynamics
    • Mathematical Biology

    Background:

    • Vital rate schedules (fertility and mortality) are fundamental to population dynamics.
    • Changes in these rates can significantly impact population growth.
    • Identifying changes that balance each other is crucial for nuanced population modeling.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To present a method for studying compensating changes in fertility and mortality.
    • To identify sets of vital rate changes that maintain a constant intrinsic rate of population growth.
    • To demonstrate the application of this method using Japanese demographic data.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilizes the discrete perspective of Leslie matrices.
    • Identifies compensating changes by finding Leslie matrices with an identical dominant eigenvalue (lambda1).

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  • Adapts a root-squaring technique for estimating lambda1.

    • Main Results:

    • A method is established to characterize compensating fertility and mortality changes.
    • The analysis defines the conditions under which vital rate changes do not affect the intrinsic population growth rate.
    • Illustrative examples of compensating changes are provided for Japan.

    Conclusions:

    • Compensating changes in fertility and mortality can occur without altering the intrinsic rate of population growth.
    • Leslie matrix analysis provides a robust framework for studying these compensating dynamics.
    • The developed method offers a tool for deeper insights into population stability and change.