Predictive factors of variceal bleeding control by emergency sclerotherapy. Multicenter Group

Acute bleeding from esophageal varices is a major complication of cirrhosis. Despite the large number of published studies no predictive factors of control of bleeding have been identified. We assessed the clinical and biological factors predictive of bleeding control within the first 2 weeks after a bleeding episode in a homogeneous group of patients enrolled in a large multicenter trial, who underwent a standardized emergency sclerotherapy session.

101 patients with cirrhosis were enrolled. All had endoscopy-proven variceal bleeding, and the interval between hematemesis or melena and emergency sclerotherapy was always less than 24 hours. A second sclerotherapy session and other methods for the prevention of rebleeding were allowed after 5 days.

Treatment failed in 16 patients after 24 hours and in a total of 33 patients after 15 days. Three of the 17 variables included in multivariate logistic analysis were associated with failure at 24 hours: encephalopathy (P = 0.006, OR = 4.0), blood transfusion prior to sclerotherapy (P = 0.012, OR = 6.2) and previous propranolol therapy (P = 0.022, OR = 4.6). Two variables were associated with failure between 24 hours and day 15 in patients successfully controlled after 24 hours: an interval between the onset of bleeding and sclerotherapy of less than 12 hours (P = 0.010) and blood transfusion (P = 0.018). After 15 days, three variables were associated with failure in a multivariate Cox model: encephalopathy (P = 0.0025, OR = 2.3), time to sclerotherapy (P = 0.022, OR 2.3) and blood transfusion before sclerotherapy (P = 0.0005, OR = 4.0).

Encephalopathy, the severity of bleeding, assessed in terms of transfusion requirements, and the time between clinically overt bleeding and sclerotherapy are the main predictive factors of failure of the control of bleeding after emergency sclerotherapy for acute bleeding from esophageal varices.