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A study of the validity of a simulation of third molar eruption based on Markov modelling
1Department of Oral Surgery, Medicine and Pathology, Dental School, University of Wales College of Medicine, Heath Park, Cardiff.
Purpose Of Investigation:
The study was undertaken to examine the extent to which a model based on a Markov modelling process would simulate the eruption of lower third molars.
Basic Procedure:
A Markov process model was developed to model eruption of lower third molars using a 1-year time increment based on simulated eruption data relating to 100 lower third molars. This model was tested using a Monte Carlo simulation and compared with eruption patterns of 973 actual lower third molars. Statistical analysis of the differences between the simulated and actual groups was undertaken.
Main Findings:
There were no differences between the simulated and actual data other than for the subgroup aged 30-34 where the simulation overestimated the probability of parteruption and underestimated the probability of uneruption and full eruption.
Principal Conclusions:
This methodology produced an accurate model that may be of use in service planning.