Event-time analysis of reproductive traits of dairy heifers

Data on the reproductive traits of dairy heifers were analyzed using event-time techniques. Traits analyzed were age at first calving (n = 4631), days to first breeding, and days open (n = 1992) during the first lactation. A proportional hazard model was used that included fixed effects of herd-year, year-season, breed type, herd weight, and heifer weight. Body weights were recorded at 390 d of age, on average. The model for days open and days to first breeding included two additional fixed effects of herd and heifer milk yield at 100 d. A significant effect of heifer weight category on age at first calving was found. The chance of calving was consistently higher for herds and heifers with higher body weight at 390 d and decreased linearly from the top to the lowest quartiles. The effects of herd weight category on days to first breeding and days open were significant. Heifers in herds with a higher average body weight were less likely to be bred, and heifers in herds with lower average body weight were less likely to get pregnant. The effect of heifer weight category on days to first breeding or days open was not significant. The effect of herd milk yield on days to first breeding was significant. Heifers in herds with lower yield were more likely to be bred. The effect of heifer milk yield category on days to first breeding and days open was significant, but no linear trend was found for the estimates of the hazard ratios. The chance of a heifer being bred and becoming pregnant was similar among the first three quartiles and was lower for heifers in the lowest quartile. The probability of a heifer reaching a first calving can be improved by increasing the body weight at 390 d. Body weight at 390 d did not appear to have a large effect on reproductive performance after first calving. High milk yield appears not to have a large negative effect on days open, at least for the milk yield levels analyzed in this study.