[Hypothesis of the compression of morbidity: an example of theoretical development in epidemiology]

In this paper we review a hypothesis put forth in 1980 by James Fries under the name of the compression of morbidity, as an example of theoretical development in the field of epidemiology. Initially we discuss some of the essential features of scientific theories and make a historical account of the most important causal models that epidemiology has embraced. Then, the basis for proposing that a compression of the morbidity is taking place are described focusing on its advantages and limitations when it is analyzed from the point of view of structuralism. Finally, we conclude that, to the extent that they are correct, models of this kind have the potential of describing and predicting the evolution of human health; hence, their systematic development entails an extraordinary importance for public health.