Determinants of prognosis in late chronic-phase chronic myelogenous leukemia

Since interferon alfa (IFN-A) became an established treatment in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), more patients are referred to tertiary centers in late chronic phase (ie, > 12 months after diagnosis). Trials conducted in this phase cannot be evaluated precisely unless the features that determine prognosis in late chronic-phase CML are identified. The purpose of this study is to define the prognostic determinants of late chronic-phase CML.

From 1980 to 1997,257 consecutive CML patients referred in late chronic phase were studied. Their clinical characteristics at the time of referral and their association with survival were investigated. A staging model was designed.

The median survival from time of referral was 43 months. Pretreatment characteristics associated with worse outcome included older age, poor performance status, splenomegaly, low albumin level, high percentage of blasts or basophils in peripheral blood (PB) or bone marrow, longer duration of chronic phase, and poor-risk group as defined by the Synthesis model. Prior exposure to IFN-A was not associated with worse outcome. By multivariate analysis, characteristics associated with shorter survival were age of 60 years or older, time from diagnosis of 3 years or greater, performance status of 1 or greater, PB basophils of 7% or greater, spleen 10 cm or greater, PB blasts 3% or greater, and albumin level less than 4 g/dL. A model that included age, duration of chronic phase, performance status, and PB basophils was generated. Patients with no, one, two, or three or greater adverse factors had median survivals of 71, 49, 26, and 19 months, respectively.

A staging model for late chronic-phase CML can stratify patients in four groups with significantly different outcomes. If confirmed in independent populations, such a model could be considered in the analysis of future trials of treatment strategies in late chronic-phase CML.