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Related Experiment Videos

Three-way ROCs

D Mossman1

  • 1Division of Forensic Psychiatry, Wright State University School of Medicine, Dayton, Ohio 45401-0927, USA.

Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
|January 23, 1999
PubMed
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This study extends receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to trichotomous diagnostic tasks. The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) quantifies diagnostic accuracy for three-outcome scenarios.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Diagnostics
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Traditional receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is primarily used for dichotomous diagnostic tasks (e.g., present/absent).
  • Many real-world medical problems require distinguishing between more than two diagnostic alternatives, a limitation of standard ROC methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend receiver operating characteristic (ROC) concepts and analysis to diagnostic tasks with three possible outcomes (trichotomous decisions).
  • To introduce and define the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) as a measure of global diagnostic accuracy for trichotomous tests.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a three-dimensional ROC surface to represent trichotomous decision tasks.
  • Definition of the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) as the probability of correct sorting of items from three populations.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Adaptation of information gain calculations for points on the ROC surface.

    • Main Results:

    • The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) provides a comprehensive measure of diagnostic accuracy for trichotomous tests, analogous to the area under the curve (AUC) for dichotomous tests.
    • Information gain can be calculated on the ROC surface, enabling comparison of diagnostic performance across different trichotomous tests.
    • The VUS effectively summarizes global accuracy in distinguishing among three diagnostic categories.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed extension of ROC analysis to trichotomous tasks provides a valuable tool for evaluating diagnostic tests with multiple outcomes.
    • The VUS offers a robust metric for assessing overall diagnostic performance in complex medical decision-making scenarios.
    • This framework facilitates more nuanced comparisons of diagnostic accuracy in situations involving three or more alternatives.