A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Economics
• Public Policy

Background:

• Hurricanes cause significant damage, leading to substantial public costs for local governments.
• Estimating these costs is crucial for disaster preparedness and financial management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and present a method for estimating probable public costs from hurricane damage.
• To provide guidance for local governments in anticipating and managing disaster recovery expenditures.

Main Methods:

• A multivariate model using multiple regression analysis was developed.
• The model incorporates meteorological, socioeconomic, and physical variables.
• A log-log model explaining 74% of expenditure variance was selected, using population and wind speed as predictors.

Main Results:

• Potential public costs for Lee County, Florida, range from $4.7 million (Category 1) to $130 million (Category 5).
• Estimated expected annual public costs are $2.3 million.
• The model provides a quantitative basis for cost estimation based on hurricane intensity.

Conclusions:

• The cost estimates offer guidance for anticipating federal, state, and local expenditures for potential hurricanes.
• The method aids policymakers in assessing public assistance policies and implications.
• Findings support the development of contingency funds for disaster response and recovery.