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Desequilibrio energético de la Tierra: confirmación e implicaciones
James Hansen1, Larissa Nazarenko, Reto Ruedy
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA. jhansen@giss.nasa.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|April 30, 2005
Resumen
La Tierra está absorbiendo el exceso de energía solar debido a los gases de efecto invernadero, causando un desequilibrio energético significativo. Esto indica un calentamiento futuro y un aumento acelerado del nivel del mar, lo que requiere estrategias proactivas de mitigación del cambio climático.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencia del sistema de la Tierra Ciencia del sistema de la Tierra
- Física de la atmósfera física de la atmósfera.
Sus antecedentes:
- El balance energético de la Tierra está influenciado por los gases de efecto invernadero y los aerosoles.
- La medición precisa del desequilibrio energético es crucial para las proyecciones climáticas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para cuantificar el desequilibrio energético actual de la Tierra.
- Proyectar los impactos futuros del cambio climático basados en el desequilibrio energético observado.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un modelo climático impulsado por forzamientos como los gases de efecto invernadero y los aerosoles.
- Cálculos de modelos confirmados con 10 años de mediciones del contenido de calor del océano.
Principales resultados:
- Se calcula que la Tierra está absorbiendo 0,85 +/- 0,15 W/m2 más energía solar de la que emite.
- El aumento observado en el contenido de calor del océano corrobora el desequilibrio energético calculado.
Conclusiones:
- Se proyecta un calentamiento global de 0,6°C sin más cambios atmosféricos.
- Destacó el retraso del sistema climático, lo que requiere una acción climática anticipada.
- Es probable que se indique una desintegración acelerada de la capa de hielo y el aumento del nivel del mar.
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