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Observaciones climáticas recientes comparadas con las proyecciones.

Stefan Rahmstorf1, Anny Cazenave, John A Church

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Resumen

Las tendencias climáticas observadas muestran un aumento del dióxido de carbono, las temperaturas globales y el nivel del mar. Datos recientes sugieren que el sistema climático, especialmente el nivel del mar, puede estar cambiando más rápido de lo que los modelos climáticos predijeron.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del clima ciencia del clima.
  • Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
  • Ciencia del sistema de la Tierra Ciencia del sistema de la Tierra

Sus antecedentes:

  • El Informe de Evaluación de 2001 del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) proporcionó proyecciones clave del modelo climático.
  • El Protocolo de Kioto, con una línea de base de 1990, estableció compromisos internacionales para la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Para comparar las recientes tendencias climáticas observadas con las proyecciones anteriores del modelo del IPCC.
  • Para evaluar si los cambios climáticos actuales se alinean con o exceden las predicciones anteriores.

Principales métodos:

  • Análisis de los datos observados para la concentración de dióxido de carbono, la temperatura media global del aire y el nivel global del mar desde 1990.
  • Comparación de estas tendencias observadas con las proyecciones del Informe de Evaluación del IPCC de 2001.

Principales resultados:

  • Se presentan las tendencias recientemente observadas en la concentración de dióxido de carbono, la temperatura media global del aire y el nivel global del mar.
  • La comparación indica una aceleración potencial en la respuesta del sistema climático, particularmente para el nivel del mar, en comparación con las proyecciones del modelo.

Conclusiones:

  • Los cambios climáticos observados desde 1990 plantean preocupaciones sobre la precisión de los modelos climáticos actuales.
  • El aumento del nivel del mar puede estar ocurriendo más rápidamente de lo proyectado anteriormente, lo que indica una respuesta potencialmente más rápida al cambio climático.