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El compromiso de varios milenios de la Antártida con el futuro aumento del nivel del mar
N R Golledge1,2, D E Kowalewski3, T R Naish1,2
1Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Nature
|October 16, 2015
Resumen
El calentamiento global que exceda de 1,5-2°C pone en riesgo el colapso irreversible de la capa de hielo antártica y el aumento significativo del nivel del mar. Limitar las emisiones al RCP 2.6 es crucial para evitar esta pérdida de hielo a largo plazo.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima
- Glaciología
- Investigación sobre el aumento del nivel del mar
Sus antecedentes:
- El calentamiento atmosférico proyectado aumentará las temperaturas superficiales medias globales.
- La respuesta de la capa de hielo al calentamiento tiene escalas de tiempo más largas que la atmósfera o el océano.
- Cuantificar la contribución de las capas de hielo al aumento del nivel del mar es un desafío.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para modelar la respuesta de la capa de hielo antártica a los escenarios de cambio climático.
- Para evaluar el impacto del colapso de la plataforma de hielo en el aumento del nivel del mar.
- Determinar los umbrales de emisión para evitar la pérdida irreversible del hielo antártico.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un modelo de capa de hielo y plataforma de hielo acoplados.
- Simuló la respuesta de la capa de hielo antártica a cuatro vías de concentración representativas (RCP).
- Analizó la dinámica de las capas de hielo de escala centenaria a milenaria.
Principales resultados:
- El calentamiento superior a 1,5-2 ° C desencadena el colapso de la plataforma de hielo antártica y el aumento del flujo viscoso.
- Este colapso compromete a la capa de hielo antártica al aumento del nivel del mar a largo plazo.
- Solo las emisiones limitadas al RCP 2.6 pueden evitar una pérdida sustancial de hielo antártico.
Conclusiones:
- Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en las próximas décadas determinarán la contribución futura de la Antártida al aumento del nivel del mar.
- Los escenarios de emisiones más altas (por encima de RCP 2.6) proyectan un aumento del nivel del mar de 0,6 a 3 metros para 2300 debido a la pérdida de hielo en la Antártida.
- Las reducciones urgentes de emisiones son necesarias para mitigar el grave aumento del nivel del mar a largo plazo debido al derretimiento del hielo antártico.
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