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Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Challenges with Nonrenewable Energy01:30

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Challenges with Nonrenewable EnergyNonrenewable energy sources such as coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy have powered the world for decades, but they come with significant challenges. These energy sources are finite, contribute to pollution, and have environmental and economic drawbacks. As demand for energy grows, scientists and engineers are working to find sustainable solutions to these challenges.Key Challenges of Nonrenewable EnergyLimited Supply – Fossil fuels and uranium take...
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VenusVenus is the second planet from the Sun and is often called Earth's "sister planet" due to its similar size and composition. However, Venus's thick atmosphere, primarily composed of carbon dioxide, creates a runaway greenhouse effect, making it the hottest planet in the solar system. Strong winds and dense clouds of sulfuric acid make Venus an extreme and inhospitable place for humans. Studying Venus helps scientists better understand planetary atmospheres, climate change, and the role of...
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Updated: Aug 14, 2025

Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System FFS for the Quantification of Methane Emissions
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Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System FFS for the Quantification of Methane Emissions

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Evaluación de las proyecciones de calentamiento global de ExxonMobil

G Supran1, S Rahmstorf2,3, N Oreskes1,4

  • 1Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 12, 2023
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

La compañía de combustibles fósiles ExxonMobil predijo con precisión las tendencias del calentamiento global de 1977-2003, coincidiendo con modelos independientes. Sin embargo, sus declaraciones públicas contradecían sus propios datos científicos sobre el clima.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del clima
  • Ciencias del medio ambiente
  • Análisis de la industria energética

Sus antecedentes:

  • Las predicciones internas de cambio climático de la industria de combustibles fósiles no han sido evaluadas previamente.
  • Comprender las proyecciones climáticas corporativas es crucial para evaluar la comunicación histórica de la ciencia del clima.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Para evaluar cuantitativamente las proyecciones de calentamiento global hechas por los científicos de Exxon y ExxonMobil de 1977 a 2003.
  • Para comparar la precisión y la habilidad de los modelos climáticos de ExxonMobil con modelos académicos y gubernamentales independientes.

Principales métodos:

  • Análisis de los registros internos de las empresas y de la documentación científica de Exxon y ExxonMobil.
  • Evaluación cuantitativa de las proyecciones climáticas, incluidas las previsiones de calentamiento global y los plazos de detección.
  • Comparación de las proyecciones empresariales con datos de observación posteriores y modelos climáticos independientes.

Principales resultados:

  • Las proyecciones climáticas internas de ExxonMobil predijeron con precisión el calentamiento global consistente con las observaciones.
  • Las predicciones de la compañía fueron tan hábiles como las de modelos climáticos académicos y gubernamentales independientes.
  • Los científicos de ExxonMobil anticiparon correctamente la detección del calentamiento global causado por el hombre y estimaron el presupuesto de carbono para limitar el calentamiento a 2°C.

Conclusiones:

  • ExxonMobil poseía un conocimiento interno preciso del cambio climático y capacidades predictivas.
  • Existió una discrepancia significativa entre los datos científicos internos de ExxonMobil y sus comunicaciones públicas sobre el cambio climático.