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気候変動の緩和のための概率的なコストの見積もり
Joeri Rogelj1, David L McCollum, Andy Reisinger
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland. joeri.rogelj@env.ethz.ch
Nature
|January 4, 2013
まとめ
気候変動対策の遅延は,緩和コストを大幅に増加させる. 政治的決定,地質物理的要因,エネルギー需要,技術はすべて,地球温暖化を2°Cに制限するコストに影響を与えます.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 統合評価モデリング
- 環境経済学 環境経済学
背景:
- 地球温暖化を2°Cに制限するという国際的な目標は,定量化が不十分な不確実性や学際的な知識統合が限られているため,課題に直面しています.
- 既存の研究は,温室効果ガスの排出に対する地球物理学的反応とは別に,技術的および社会経済的不確実性を評価することが多い.
研究 の 目的:
- 統合評価と気候モデリングコミュニティの間のギャップを埋めるために.
- 地質物理的,技術的,社会的,政治的不確実性を統合することによって,一時的な地球温度の上昇を制限するためのコスト分布を生成する.
主な方法:
- 地質物理,技術,社会,政治の4つの重要な要因からの不確実性を組み込むモデルを開発しました.
- 地球温度の上昇を制限するために発生したコストの分布は,特定の値 (例えば,1.5°C,2°C,3°C) に達する.
主要な成果:
- 緩和努力を遅らせる政治的選択は,コストリスク分布に最も実質的な影響を及ぼします.
- 地質学的不確実性,エネルギー需要に影響を与える社会的要因,技術的な不確実性は,緩和コストへの影響として続く.
結論:
- 政策立案には,緩和コスト,エネルギー需要,およびグローバルな行動のタイミングの相対的な重要性を理解する必要があります.
- さまざまな不確実性を統合することは,気候変動の緩和目標に関連するコストとリスクを正確に評価するために不可欠です.
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