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南極大陸の海面上昇への数千年のコミットメント

N R Golledge1,2, D E Kowalewski3, T R Naish1,2

  • 1Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.

Nature
|October 16, 2015
PubMed
まとめ

地球温暖化が1.5~2°Cを超えると,南極の氷床が不可逆的に崩壊し,海面が著しく上昇する危険性があります. 長期にわたる氷の減少を防ぐには 排出量をRCP 2.6に制限することが重要です

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科学分野:

  • 気候科学
  • 氷河学
  • 海面上昇に関する研究

背景:

  • 予想される大気温暖化により 地球全体の平均地表温度が上昇します
  • 温暖化に対する氷床の反応は 大気や海よりも長い時間帯です
  • 氷床が海面上昇に 与える影響を定量化するのは 難しいことです

研究 の 目的:

  • 気候変動のシナリオに対する 南極の氷床の反応をモデル化するためです
  • 氷床の崩壊が海面上昇に与える影響を評価する
  • 南極の氷の不可逆的な損失を防ぐための排出基準を決定する.

主な方法:

  • アイスシート/シェルフモデルを使用した.
  • 南極の氷床の反応を4つの代表的な濃縮経路 (RCP) にシミュレーションしました.
  • 氷床の動態を分析した.

主要な成果:

  • 1.5~2°Cを超える温暖化により 南極の氷棚が崩壊し 粘着性流が増加します
  • この崩壊により 南極の氷床は 長期的に海面上昇します
  • RCP 2.6に限られた排出量だけが,南極の氷の損失を防ぐことができます.

結論:

  • 温室効果ガスの排出は 今後数十年で 南極大陸が 海面上昇に与える影響を決定します
  • 2300年までに南極の氷の減少により海面が0.6~3メートル上昇すると予測されている.
  • 南極の氷の融解による深刻な長期の海面上昇を緩和するには,緊急に排出量を削減する必要があります.