南極大陸の海面上昇への数千年のコミットメント
N R Golledge1,2, D E Kowalewski3, T R Naish1,2
1Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Nature
|October 16, 2015
まとめ
地球温暖化が1.5~2°Cを超えると,南極の氷床が不可逆的に崩壊し,海面が著しく上昇する危険性があります. 長期にわたる氷の減少を防ぐには 排出量をRCP 2.6に制限することが重要です
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 氷河学
- 海面上昇に関する研究
背景:
- 予想される大気温暖化により 地球全体の平均地表温度が上昇します
- 温暖化に対する氷床の反応は 大気や海よりも長い時間帯です
- 氷床が海面上昇に 与える影響を定量化するのは 難しいことです
研究 の 目的:
- 気候変動のシナリオに対する 南極の氷床の反応をモデル化するためです
- 氷床の崩壊が海面上昇に与える影響を評価する
- 南極の氷の不可逆的な損失を防ぐための排出基準を決定する.
主な方法:
- アイスシート/シェルフモデルを使用した.
- 南極の氷床の反応を4つの代表的な濃縮経路 (RCP) にシミュレーションしました.
- 氷床の動態を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 1.5~2°Cを超える温暖化により 南極の氷棚が崩壊し 粘着性流が増加します
- この崩壊により 南極の氷床は 長期的に海面上昇します
- RCP 2.6に限られた排出量だけが,南極の氷の損失を防ぐことができます.
結論:
- 温室効果ガスの排出は 今後数十年で 南極大陸が 海面上昇に与える影響を決定します
- 2300年までに南極の氷の減少により海面が0.6~3メートル上昇すると予測されている.
- 南極の氷の融解による深刻な長期の海面上昇を緩和するには,緊急に排出量を削減する必要があります.
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