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There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
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气候变化造成的灭绝风险

Chris D Thomas1, Alison Cameron, Rhys E Green

  • 1Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. c.d.thomas@leeds.ac.uk

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|January 9, 2004
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概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

气候变化威胁着物种的生存,预计15-37%的物种将在中等范围的变暖下到2050年致力于灭绝. 迫切的减排和碳捕获对于缓解生物多样性丧失至关重要.

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科学领域:

  • 生态生态学 生态生态学
  • 气候科学 气候科学
  • 保护生物学 保护生物学

背景情况:

  • 在过去的30年里,气候变化明显改变了物种分布和丰度.
  • 一种已记录的物种灭绝与气候变化影响有关.
  • 评估未来的灭绝风险对于积极的保护战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

  • 在未来的气候变化场景下,预测各种物种的灭绝风险.
  • 量化各种陆地地区致力于灭绝的物种的百分比.
  • 评估地理范围大小与灭绝概率之间的关系.

主要方法:

  • 利用物种分布模型在不同的气候情景下预测范围的变化.
  • 采用了三种不同的分析方法来估计灭绝概率.
  • 整合了两个分散场景,以考虑物种的移动能力.

主要成果:

  • 到2050年的中期气候变暖情景预测,15-37%的样本物种将会灭绝.
  • 最小的变暖场景预计大约有18%的物种致力于灭绝.
  • 增加的变暖场景与更高的灭绝预测相关,在最大变化下达到约35%.

结论:

  • 预计的灭绝率强调了气候变化对全球生物多样性的严重威胁.
  • 调查结果强调,迫切需要立即大幅减少温室气体排放.
  • 实施有效的碳捕获策略对于减少未来的灭绝风险至关重要.