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随着人类人口的老龄化,平均剩余寿命可能会增加
Warren C Sanderson1, Sergei Scherbov
1Department of Economics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794-4384, USA. wsanderson@notes.cc.sunysb.edu
Nature
|June 10, 2005
概括
全球人口老龄化正在迅速增加. 一项新的标准化年龄测量显示,尽管中年人数上升,但人口可能会变年轻,这具有悖论性,挑战了对老龄化的传统观点.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是富裕国家面临的重大挑战,中位数年龄是主要指标.
- 随着寿命的增加,传统的年龄测量 (自出生以来的年龄) 不足.
- 需要对年龄有新的看法,考虑到剩余的预期寿命和寿命比例.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的人口老龄化指标:平均年龄标准化为预期寿命.
- 使用这种新指标分析德国,日本和美国的历史数据和预测.
- 通过调整预期寿命的增加来重新评估老年人依赖率.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的人口老龄化指标:平均年龄标准化为预期剩余寿命.
- 对德国,日本和美国的历史数据和未来预测应用标准化度量.
- 预测老年人依赖率的预测,重新调整以考虑到出生时预期寿命的增加.
主要成果:
- 德国,日本和美国的人口,虽然按照传统的平均年龄老龄化,但在标准化时可能会经历"年轻化"的时期.
- 与未调整比例相比,重新调整的老年人依赖率的变化明显较小.
- 标准化中位数年龄和重新调整的依赖率都显示出有效人口复苏的潜在时期.
结论:
- 标准化的平均年龄提供了对人口老龄化动态的更细致的理解.
- 传统的措施可能会夸大人口老龄化及其相关挑战的程度.
- 未来的人口统计分析应纳入预期寿命调整,以更准确地评估人口老龄化.
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