强烈的当今气溶冷却意味着一个炎热的未来
Meinrat O Andreae1, Chris D Jones, Peter M Cox
1Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, PO Box 3060, Mainz 55131, Germany. andreae@mpch-mainz.mpg.de
Nature
|July 1, 2005
概括
大气中的气溶冷却了地球,但它们对未来全球变暖的影响尚不确定. 气溶冷却的下降表明,气候变暖可能会超出目前预测的速度.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 大气中的化学成分
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 人为温室气体驱动全球变暖.
- 大气中的气溶具有降温效应,抵消了一些变暖.
- 气溶效应的不确定性造成了气候预测的重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 研究大气气溶在气候变化中的作用.
- 评估气溶冷却减少对未来变暖的影响.
- 改进气候敏感性估计和碳循环反预测.
主要方法:
- 对气候模型输出的分析.
- 对气溶和温室气体的观测数据的审查.
- 气溶与温室气体相互作用的评估.
主要成果:
- 气溶冷却是相当大的,但高度不确定.
- 由于更清洁的大气政策,未来的气溶冷却量预计将减少.
- 这种下降意味着未来的变暖可能处于IPCC预测的高端.
结论:
- 气溶对气候敏感性的净影响仍然是一个关键的不确定性.
- 减少气溶强迫将放大温室气体的变暖.
- 未来的全球变暖可能会超过目前的上限预测,如果没有缓解措施.
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