从全球气候模型中改进了未来十年的表面温度预测
Doug M Smith1, Stephen Cusack, Andrew W Colman
1Met office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK. doug.smith@metoffice.gov.uk
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的气候模型,该模型通过预测内部气候变化以及外部强迫来更好地预测表面温度. 该模型表明,全球变暖的暂时抵消,但在未来十年继续升温趋势.
科学领域:
- 气候科学气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 以前的气候模型主要集中在外部强迫 (自然和人为).
- 内部气候变化,气候动态的关键组成部分,在预测模型中基本没有得到解决.
- 准确的气候预测需要整合外部驱动因素和内部气候动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发和展示一种能够预测内部气候变化的新型气候建模系统.
- 提升全球和区域地表温度预测能力,在十年内进行预测.
- 通过结合内部和外部因素,提供更准确的气候变化预测.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的气候建模系统,旨在预测内部气候变化.
- 整合对内部产生的自然变化和外部强迫变化的预测.
- 验证模型在十年时间范围内对表面温度的预测能力.
主要成果:
- 新的建模系统在预测表面温度方面表现出显著提高的技能.
- 预计内部变化在短期内会部分抵消人类造成的全球变暖信号.
- 预计2009年以后的至少50%的年份将超过有记录以来最热的一年,这表明持续的变暖.
结论:
- 开发的建模系统为十年的地表温度预测提供了增强的预测技能.
- 考虑到内部气候变异性对于准确的气候变化预测至关重要.
- 尽管短期波动,但全球变暖的长期趋势预计将继续显著.
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