什么时候两个头比一个好,为什么呢?
1Department of Psychology and Institute of Information Processing and Decision Making, University of Haifa, Haifa 31905, Israel. akoriat@research.haifa.ac.il
概括
两个头比一个人好,但只要他们沟通. 在一个群体中依靠更自信的个人可能会导致更糟糕的决定,当大多数人错时.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 集体决策往往胜过个人判断.
- 自由沟通和共享的信心是团队有效性的关键因素.
- 主观的信心是理解判断准确性的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查是否可以在没有直接互动的情况下复制群组决策的好处.
- 检查主观信心在个人与小组准确性中的作用.
- 确定在哪些条件下,集团决策优于个人决策的条件.
主要方法:
- 使用感知任务复制"两个头比一个好"的研究.
- 虚拟二元体被使用,消除了直接通信.
- 在每个试验中选择最自信的成员的决定.
- 基于信任度和错误率的决策准确性的分析.
主要成果:
- 依赖于更自信的成员复制了"两个头比一个好"的效果.
- 当多数错误时,更自信的成员的决定导致的结果比最好的个人决定更差.
- 主观信心与共识相关,但不一定与准确性相关.
结论:
- 集团决策的好处不仅仅取决于直接沟通.
- 当共识基于广泛的错误时",更自信的成员"启发式可能是有害的.
- 了解信心,共识和准确性之间的关系对于优化小组表现至关重要.
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