世界人口稳定在本世纪不太可能发生
Patrick Gerland1, Adrian E Raftery2, Hana Sevčíková3
1Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA. gerland@un.org raftery@u.washington.edu.
概括
世界人口增长不太可能在本世纪停止,预测显示到2100年人口将增加到96-123亿. 这种由生育率驱动的人口变化将对非洲产生重大影响,并改变全球依赖率.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 以前的人口预测表明全球人口增长的稳定或下降.
- 联合国 (联合国) 历来使用各种方法提供人口估计.
研究的目的:
- 用贝叶斯概率学方法分析联合国最新的人口预测.
- 重新评估21世纪世界人口持续增长的可能性.
主要方法:
- 用贝叶斯概率方法来进行人口预测分析.
- 用于预测的2012年之前的数据.
- 结果与联合国传统的高变量和低变量预测进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 世界人口在本世纪不太可能停止增长,这与之前的一些文献相反.
- 到2100年,全球人口在96亿至123亿之间达到80%的概率.
- 人口增长预计将集中在非洲,受生育率和生育率下降的下降速度的影响.
- 所有国家都预计劳动年龄人口与老年人口的比例将大幅下降.
结论:
- 预计到2100年,世界人口将继续大幅增长.
- 预计非洲将成为未来人口增长的主要驱动力.
- 人口变化将导致全球支持老龄化人口的挑战.
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