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相关实验视频

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Analyzing Gene Expression from Marine Microbial Communities using Environmental Transcriptomics
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全球变暖带来的海洋热浪

Thomas L Frölicher1,2, Erich M Fischer3, Nicolas Gruber4

  • 1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. froelicher@climate.unibe.ch.

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概括

由于人类造成的全球变暖,海洋热浪的频率和强度正在增加. 这些极端事件威胁到海洋生态系统和渔业,在持续变暖的场景下,预计将大幅加快.

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科学领域:

  • 气候科学
  • 海洋学
  • 海洋生态

背景情况:

  • 海洋热浪是海面极端温度事件,对海洋生态系统和渔业产生重大影响.
  • 过去对MHW的历史事件和未来预测的了解仍然有限.

研究的目的:

  • 分析海洋热浪的历史趋势和未来预测.
  • 量化不同全球变暖水平对MHW特征的影响.

主要方法:

  • 使用卫星观测海面温度.
  • 用了一套地球系统模型模拟来进行未来的预测.

主要成果:

  • 在1982年至2016年间,MHW的频率翻了一番,预计随着全球变暖而显著增加.
  • 预计在3.5°C的升温下,MHW的发生可能性会增加41倍,范围会扩大21倍,持续112天.
  • 人类引起的气候变暖是目前87%的MHW的原因,在2°C的气候变暖下将上升到近100%.

结论:

  • 由于人为气候变化,MHW变得越来越频繁,持续时间更长,范围更广,且更强烈.
  • 未来的MHW对海洋生物构成严重风险,可能会超过生态系统的弹性,并造成不可逆转的变化.
  • 迫切减少碳排放对于减轻极端海洋热浪的威胁至关重要.