气候作为武装冲突的风险因素
Katharine J Mach1, Caroline M Kraan2, W Neil Adger3
1Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mach@stanford.edu.
Nature
|June 14, 2019
概括
专家们一致认为气候变化会影响有组织的武装冲突, 了解气候冲突的确切机制仍然不确定,尽管未来的风险预计会增加.
科学领域:
- 综合气候科学,政治科学和社会学的跨学科研究.
- 专注于环境因素与人类冲突之间的复杂相互作用.
背景情况:
- 关于气候冲突的多样化和有争议的研究结果.
- 需要专家就气候对武装冲突的影响达成共识.
研究的目的:
- 评估目前专家对气候与冲突关系的理解.
- 确定气候冲突联系的关键因素和不确定性.
主要方法:
- 一个多元化的跨学科专家小组的结构性判断.
- 对气候在冲突中的作用的专家意见进行定性评估.
主要成果:
- 专家们一致认为气候会影响内部的武装冲突.
- 社会经济发展和国家能力被认为是更重要的驱动因素.
- 气候和冲突之间的联系机制被确定为一个关键的不确定性领域.
结论:
- 气候变化被认为是冲突的一个因素,
- 需要进一步研究以阐明气候冲突相互作用的具体途径.
- 预计气候变化的加剧将增加未来的冲突风险.
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