在离散事件模拟中实施竞争风险:特定事件的概率和分布方法
Fanny Franchini1,2, Victor Fedyashov3, Maarten J IJzerman1,2,4,5
1Cancer Health Services Research, Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Frontiers in pharmacology
|November 15, 2023
概括
本研究介绍了事件特异概率和分布 (ESPD) 方法,用于在离散事件模拟 (DES) 中使用受审查数据对竞争事件进行建模. 该ESPD方法显示出良好的性能,尽管准确性受样本大小和审查水平的影响.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 离散事件模拟 (DES) 缺乏强大的方法来与被审查的数据竞争事件.
- 现有的策略没有充分地解决审查场景中的特定事件概率和分布 (ESPD).
研究的目的:
- 在处理被审查数据时,定义和说明ESPD对模拟竞争事件的方法.
- 评估ESPD策略在模拟和现实世界案例研究中的性能和适用性.
主要方法:
- 通过两步的过程,ESPD方法模拟事件:事件类型选择和时间到事件抽样,两者都可能依赖于共变量.
- 使用模拟研究来评估表现,样本大小和审查水平各不相同.
- 一个瘤学案例研究证明了在R中使用频率主义和贝叶斯框架的实施.
主要成果:
- 在模拟研究中,ESPD方法表现良好.
- 随着样本规模的缩小和审查水平的提高,准确性下降.
- 瘤病例研究产生了现实的结果,证实了该方法的实际实用性.
结论:
- ESPD 方法是用受审查的数据在 DES 中建模竞争事件的可行方法.
- 需要进一步的研究来比较ESPD与其他DES建模技术,并评估其用于累积事件发生率估计的实用性.
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